How PDGA Ratings ACTUALLY Work [Predict Your Next Rating]

today my PDGA rating is 9 31. tomorrow the day that you're watching this video it's 9 47 and the reason I can tell you that well it might be 946 but the reason that I can most likely tell you it's going to be 947 is because you can calculate down to a number what your PDGA rating will be for the next month so in this video I want to talk to you about how PDGA ratings are calculated and how you can calculate yours for next month even before the PDGA tells you what it will be welcome back to Bonanza disc golf my name is Anthony and I have the goal to make it onto the pro tour so I'm making a lot of videos about disk reviews training to get to that point as well as things like this which are just things that all disc golfers should know so let's dive on to pdga.com real quick and take a look at how ratings work so we get on here it basically just says that your ratings are essentially how well you play against the course and against everyone else who plays the course what this essentially means is for every PDGA sanction event there's some number relative to par and for this example let's just say even that if you score that you're like shooting really good that's a thousand rated but if you go to any course you're not going to be able to just pull up this is what the Thousand rated round is because it obviously depends on how the wind is how early of around even what the ground action was like and the courses do change so that all gets taken into account when we look at how the rating systems actually calculated the PDGA rating system guide I won't get too much into how ratings are calculated for specific events because PDGA kind of keeps that all locked up behind closed doors but essentially if there are five or more what they call propagators or people who have played enough rounds that their rating actually is kind of average representation of how well they play whatever they score they'll like average that with all the other propagators that are there and they'll come out with like this is what this round is rated we're gonna look at all my round ratings at the end of this video to show you how to calculate yours but just know essentially nobody knows how those are calculated and there's a bunch of controversy around it all the time so this is just talking about what your overall rating is after having gotten all those ratings from all your rounds alright this is where we get into the real meat of it player ratings a player's PG rating is based on rounds in the past 12 months prior to their most recently rated round there's an exception for this later but one thing to know is that the most recent 25 of your rounds will count double once there are at least nine round ratings this is something that will take into account later when we talk about the calculations if you have have less than eight rounds within the past 12 months the system will look back to 24 months maybe you played something in the way in the past until it finds either eight rounds or has gotten to 24 months but up until the 8 month point it's going to count all of your rounds even if you had a really bad round like I did in my first eight rounds I shot like 770 something really windy round second tournament ever played it just absolutely terrible but rounds more than 2.5 standard deviations which is a statistical term we're not even going to worry about this because I'm not a statistician and the second part of this will probably be more applicable to everybody or 100 points below a player's average rating are excluded from the player's rating if there are at least seven rounds included in the players rating so my rating was never below I think 880 something I think that was my first rating and so that's 770 whatever rated round should have been thrown out initially but it wasn't because I only had like four rounds and then after I got over eight rounds they threw that 700 something rated round out because it's not really a representation of how I played it was just a really really bad day I think with the 2.5 standard deviation comes in is like for top level Pros who are always shooting 1040 if they shoot like a 1060 rated round it's only 80 points below but it's probably more than two standard deviations but I don't know not a stack guy in case you're wondering about dnfs if you don't complete a round your score will scope your score your score will show 999 which is what the dnf signal is there's also an 888 which actually does affect your rating negatively but it will not be included in your ratings round if like you get injured in the middle of a round it's not going to count towards anything and you do need to have 13 minimum holes to get a rating for an event I don't know if that's in here but I think that's a thing the next part of the site actually gets back into what we were talking about earlier about how ratings are calculated for an event but honestly I don't even worry about this I just wait for pdj to tell me what my rating is now we can determine based on these couple paragraphs up here where it says player ratings how you can calculate your own round rating every single month and how I've done this successfully in the past couple months but there are a couple of assumptions that we need to make that I'm not 100 sure on we're gonna go on to a Google sheet real fast which I'm going to have exported and Linked In the description on gumroad which is somewhere that you can just download it for free but you can donate to me if you want to support the channel but please feel no obligation to do that it's just an option there if you do want to support I have the super ugly now it's going to be a lot more readable for you guys when I actually create it go into that government sheet but these are the important things that we need to look at every single round within your last 12 months and then we need to essentially duplicate the last quarter of your rounds as long as you have nine or more so if you have 12 rounds we'll need to take your last three rounds double them and then we'll have 15 total rounds to average from and this is where things get a little interesting but let's do the first part first and to look at your ratings I just go to pga.com my player profile is already updated 210 763 and if you go here to ratings detail you can look at all of your rated rounds that are already calculated into your rating unfortunately you really can't go based just off your rating and add your new ones in because there's a bunch of different rounds some of them are doubled some of them are not qualified and as we can see in my rated rounds here all the way back to my first round right here which was 863 rated and then my second one was 904 and then I shot a 778 with my first round my second round that tournament was 992. 200 plus Point difference if you have a tournament where you have a bigger spread than 214 points between two rounds please comment that because that would really I would be impressed because that was a crazy split but you could see that this 778 is evaluated but not included because it's within the last 12 months so it got evaluated why can't I speak today so it got evaluated but it's not included because over 100 points less than what my average rating is which is 930 one so we still have to add that into our initial calculation because I'm not sure if they take that out before they average it or after but I don't know how they would do it before if they don't have an average yet so we're going to add that in and then redo that again so let's take a look so I've actually already done us the favor of taking all these rounds and importing them into my pdj rating expel ex Excel spreadsheet and I have them ordered by date which is also very important before I post this video obviously I have to make sure that I was correct but I'm also going to show you my updated spreadsheet and how that works because you can just copy paste in here and I'm going to make it really easy for you guys to download all this information but if we look at all my rounds here that are ranked by the date that they came up we can see that I have 25 total rounds now this is where the first guest needs to come in play because if you take 25 and divide it by 4 it's 6.25 so do they round up or down and do my last six or seven rounds count for double in terms of my rating we're just going to assume six because I'm guessing they round so if you have like 6.5 maybe round up and include the last seven rounds I would assume that it'd be the last whole number so I'm going to say six and those six rounds are basically just my last three tournaments two four six rounds and if we take those copy and just paste them down here those are all the doubled rounds and now instead of having 25 total rounds I have to divide this whole sum by 31. so if we take equal sum this will all be ready easily for you and divide that by 31 we get 938.06 Which is higher than two of the numbers that we have on our list the 838 number and the 778 number so I'm just going to take these out of the equation but now we only have 29 total rounds so instead of dividing by 31 here we can divide this by 29 and we get 947 which I think is what my rating is going to be tomorrow I've done this the last couple of months and been able to calculate my rating down to a number and now let's get to tomorrow so I can hopefully tell you that I was right as well as show you how your spreadsheet is going to work because it's going to be a lot prettier than this one that I have on the screen all right it's the next morning I look much more of my normal craziness real quick let me show you how to get access to this sheet if you want to use it anthonybradanza.gomery.com or I'll leave a specific link you have PGA rating prediction sheet by videos of disc golf I also had another thing for another YouTube channel that I have over there but if you click into this it's gonna say name a fair price you can put zero dollars there no problem this is just a pricing sheet and then you'll add that to your cart zero dollars and then put in your email address and then it'll send it right to your email address and what you'll get will be a link to a Google sheet right over here that is shared but you do have to make a copy so when you get here don't go up to share and request to be an editor I will not let you be an editor and I will become sad and angry because I told you not to do it go to file and then make a copy and you can make a copy for yourself and then from there you can tell them to excel whatever you need to do but here is a much prettier version of the spreadsheet and what you'll do is you'll go into PDGA I think I still have this up I haven't updated it yet because I wanted to look at it with you it still says 931 as of September 13th if you go over to ratings detail please don't update I was wrong just 9 43 why does it only say 9 43. it should be 947 something not get evaluated interesting this changes one thing but actually nothing that is super lame but looks like I was slightly wrong when I'm just going to post this because I'm pretty sure my spreadsheet is still correct I just made one assumption that like I said we had to make that didn't end up being true so we can see my current rating is 943 not 947 and the reason for that is if we look at my evaluated and included right here this 838 right here is evaluated and included even though I thought it wouldn't be because it's lower than 100 points below that's kind of really stupid because it's decimal but whatever what you do up here is you go to date and sort it by your oldest to newest so you have your newest ones down here and then if you just go ahead and copy this whole thing and go back to the sheet and paste it I'm going to make a copy of this actually real fast but we'll go paste right here and it's gonna place all those into this thing right here now there is something that we still have to do because it's showing that my rating would be 751 and I would have to delete rounds below 651. all new tournament ratings we'll have to add in here so I put room for events where you could just say event one or something like that and then the reading will just call 1020. because that's definitely what my rating is going to be there and that'll add to the number of ratings that you have total and it's going to add to the ratings that you need to count double which is up here if you have more than nine rounds total so if you don't have nine rounds then don't add any of these double rounds but since I haven't played any new rounds all I have to do is take my most recent six one two three four five six copy those ratings and paste them here and now we can see that I have a number of rounds is 25 it double counts all six of those rounds which would first be from your new rounds and then from the old rounds there's an initial calculation that's hidden under these black boxes here here let me show you this real fast because my average for all these ratings is 938.19 so in my assumption that would mean that I would delete stuff that's 100 points below that which would be anything 838.19 and below it looks like PDGA doesn't know how to not round hey one reason that I just thought of for this is that there might actually be decimal places on the rounds that they don't show you on pdga's website so my a38 rated round might be like 838.4 rated or something super stupid like that that means that it's not lower than 938.19 or maybe they're just rounding I don't get it I wish there'd be a little more transparent my spreadsheet will be accurate everything below 838 not including okay uh back to me in the past that's some point 10 minutes ago bye but because they don't know how to not round I just changed this function to be delete rounds below 838 because you don't want to delete your 838 rounds apparently because PDA is still going to include them because they don't know how to round so if we go here to Thunderbird throw down 778 and we just delete that which what I do is actually instead of deleting it so that you can still see that the rating is there you add C to the round to show that you canceled it out so if you just click on it hit return and then add a c then it's not going to take it into account and now we can see apparently now they're going to round down because now my round rating oh my gosh okay PGA why do none of their roundings work in your favor because now it says that my round rating would be 9.44 but we can see that that's because this number is 943.53333 sheets just like everyone assumes hey you round that to the no to the closest number which would be 944 but apparently you don't do that so I gotta change this rating function to instead of round to round down and now we have the correct rating of 943. unfortunately we learned a lot about PDGA that is Dom right now or this is 943 even though that's so stupid oh why can't I delete this 838 round even though my thing was 938.19 whatever all my calculations were correct I just didn't make the correct assumptions so this spreadsheet should not work for you the last thing that might be questionable is the number of rounds that are double counted and I'm having as you can see the number of double counted rounds be rounded just normally but if there's 15 rounds it goes up to four even though 16 divided by four is four and so I don't trust PGA to round that number up now so that might be the one thing that makes this not accurate but otherwise if you put all of your previous ratings in here that are already in your ratings detail within the last 12 months so make sure if you have stuff that's older than the last 12 months you don't include that you just start your copy paste from down a little bit and then you'll go ahead and add in all of your new tournament rounds that are going to be evaluated next month which actually doesn't include League rounds because one thing that I noticed is that League rounds like these ones that say l don't actually get evaluated or like submitted officially to the PDGA until after this date right here when they finally end so I didn't actually see any of these rounds even though I did all of them in April until June's rating update so that's one thing to know make sure that if you do have more recent rounds of them you count those in these double counted rounds I know it's a little bit complicated here's one last thing that you're gonna have to ignore on here which is this new part to add C2 rounds below this number and that's because as we can see pdj only evaluates this one time meaning that since they recalculated my rating to be 943 they're not now going and looking at rounds that are below 843 for me to delete because this 838 round is still there so after you delete rounds one time never look at these numbers again and your rating will just be right here learned a lot unfortunately didn't go in my favor very frustrated that they didn't let me take out this 838 right around that's so dumb because my rating is 100 points above that just based on their own system but I guess just keeping it at a decimal point is too hard which is dumb and uh if you need an example I do have a second tab in that Google sheet that shows the example from the video which is actually before this rating updated because I made this yesterday as you can see I do have that c next to 838 because I thought that pdj knew how to round I'm like really milking this for all it's worth but if we go ahead and delete that we can see it updates now to 943 which should be 944 because they should round the same way both times but they they don't they always just round down but that's how that works and if you're interested in disc reviews training videos Challenge videos maybe other things like this if there is anything else in disc golf definitely subscribe but check out my last challenge right here which is a Full Tilt versus one of the craziest part fours at a top 10 course in the world when I was in Minnesota or my latest disc reviews right down here and I'll see you guys there